Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
